Can Changes in Urban Form Affect PM2.5 Concentration? A Comparative Analysis from 286 Prefecture-Level Cities in China

It is crucial to the sustainable development of cities that we understand how urban form affects the concentration of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) from a spatial-temporal perspective. This study explored the influence of urban form on PM2.5 concentration in 286 prefecture-level Chinese cities and compared them from national and regional perspectives. The analysis, which explored the influence of urban form on PM2.5 concentration, was based on two types of urban form indicators (socioeconomic urban index and urban landscape index). The results revealed that cities with high PM2.5 concentrations tended to be clustered. From the national perspective, urban built-up area (UA) and road density (RD) have a significant correlation with PM2.5 concentration for all cities. There was a significant negative correlation between the number of patches (NP) and the average concentration of PM2.5 in small and medium-sized cities. Moreover, urban fragmentation had a stronger impact on PM2.5 concentrations in small cities. From a sub-regional perspective, there was no significant correlation between urban form and PM2.5 concentration in the eastern and central regions. On the other hand, the influence of population density on PM2.5 concentration in northeastern China and northwestern China showed a significant positive correlation. In large- and medium-sized cities, the number of patches (NP), the largest patch index (LPI), and the contagion index (CONTAG) were also positively correlated with PM2.5 concentration, while the LPI in small cities was significantly negatively correlated with PM2.5 concentration. This shows that, for more developed areas, planning agencies should encourage moderately decentralized and polycentric urban development. For underdeveloped cities and shrinking cities, the development of a single center should be encouraged.