Business fluctuations in Italy, 1861-1913: The new evidence

Band-pass filters and structural time-series models are applied to the new estimates of Italy's domestic product from 1861 to 1913. These indicate a strong four-year cycle, derived from the agricultural sector, which curiously (and perhaps spuriously) vanishes after 30 years. Over the longer term GDP and the services reflect the long swing in industrial production, tied to the investment cycle. Agriculture seems marked instead by a further cycle of some 12-15 years, and also by a long wave related to the sector's terms of trade. (C) 2006 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.