Biofuels in Brazil and Land Use Change

Brazil is the world's champion of biofuels, producing sugarcane ethanol for several decades and more recently also soybean biodiesel. A number of recent studies have highlighted that biofuel expansion may lead to significant land use change (LUC), causing biodiversity loss and release of carbon emissions. Against this backdrop, this paper reviews the LUC impacts related to biofuels production in Brazil, looking both at past and expected future land use trends, and it analyses the potential threats to biodiversity. While there is not clear evidence about indirect LUC, the analysis found that under a business as usual scenario ethanol expansion could result in significant direct conversion of virgin Cerrado's savannah, causing negative biodiversity impacts. Soybean farms are also likely to lead to both negative direct and indirect LUC impacts, although only a part of these impacts can be associated to biodiesel production, as the latter is not the main driver for soybean growth. Finally, the paper argues that negative LUG impacts can be minimized, if not prevented, through a radical shift in the agriculture model.