The impact of technology availability on the transition to net-zero industry in Sweden

There is great uncertainty about what technologies will be available in time to meet Sweden's 2045 net-zero emission target for the industrial sector. This study therefore investigated how the availability of innovative technologies affects cost-effective pathways to meeting this target. The investigation employed scenario analyses using TIMES-Sweden with a new techno-economic database of industrial technologies. The scenarios varied according to how the net-zero target was defined and which technologies could be used to meet the target. Technology readiness levels (TRLs) were used to define which and when new technologies were available for investments. Based on the scenario results, a technology prioritisation pattern was identified, indicating the conditions under which technology options generated cost-efficient solutions from a systems perspective. If carbon offsetting was allowed, then carbon capture and storage (CCS) was promoted, using biofuels as a supplement. When carbon offsetting was restricted, technologies using biofuels and/or electrification options were preferred. In all scenarios, the use of heat pumps and the integration of biofuel production in the forest industry, for example, strengthened sector coupling and were favoured for the efficient use of biomass. The results also revealed that a net-zero industry with restricted use of carbon offsetting relies on technologies with a TRL of 6 (on a scale of 9) to become available; in such cases, hydrogen electrolysis and black liquor gasification were key. When carbon offsetting was unrestricted, CCS technologies combined with low-cost negative emissions provided the most cost-efficient solution, but it led to fossil fuel lock-in. For Sweden, the local availability of biomass provides a competitive advantage when the use and production of biofuels both reduces the need for using more costly power-to-fuel solutions in industry and makes available low-cost negative emissions.