Predictive risk modelling and the mistaken equation of socio-economic disadvantage with risk of maltreatment

In England, the involvement of the state in private family life has significantly changed since 1989, and is about to undergo yet further transformation with the adoption of predictive risk modelling. Its implementation by at least eight local authorities and promotion by the central government operates an ontological and methodological revolution in child protection policies and practice. This article particularly discusses the conceptual and empirical limits to their use. It makes the case that the data fed to risk models, and the institutional structures through which they are run, limit the understanding of maltreatment. Based on misleading evidence, risk models are set to mistakenly equate socio-economic disadvantage with risks, thus threatening to automatise the discrimination and alienation of the poorest sections of the population.