The real north-south divide? Regional gradients in UK male non-employment

Unemployment rates across the UK's regions are now more similar than they have been for many years. But has the longstanding north-south gap in labour market performance really narrowed? Interregional variation in non-employment rates, a more revealing indicator than unemployment rate relativities, suggests that it has not. In the relatively depressed North East of England, the proportion of working age males without a job is twice as large as in the relatively prosperous South East. Even more striking is the north-south gradient in the composition of non-employment, quantified here using compositional data analysis. The share of the non-employed not working 'for reasons of sickness or disability' is strongly and positively correlated with the non-employment rate, and since the share of non-employed who are sick and disabled rises with age, these two influences combine to produce some extraordinary gradients across the UK's regions. For example, almost half of all 60 to 64 year old males in North East England are not working by reason of sickness or disability - three times the proportion in the South East. Evidently convergence of regional labour market performance should not be included amongst the benefits claimed for the UK's widely admired 'flexible' labour market regime.