Reliability Index Update for Driven Piles Based on Bayesian Theory Using Pile Load Test Results

In a conventional reliability analysis, only results of pile load tests conducted to failures are counted in the uncertainty assessment regarding the bearing capacity of driven piles, and the non-failed pile load test results are not reflected in the reliability index calculation. In this paper, an analytical method is used to update the distribution of the measured-to-predicted pile capacity of a driven pile using likelihood, which reflects whether a pile has failed or not, by implementing the Bayesian theory. Reliability analyses were performed based on the updated distributions of the measured-to-predicted pile capacities using the 1st-order reliability method (FORM). It is noted that pile load test results-that is, the number of failures from the number of total pile tests-can contribute to the reliability update of a driven pile.