An Investigation into the Earthquake Migration Patterns in Marmara Region, Turkey

The seismic migration patterns can be associated with the existing geophysical setting, the tectonic movements and the geographical distribution of seismicity. The right identification of these patterns would lead to the better hazard analysis, forecasts and precise predictions. So, in an attempt to develop a method for the identification of seismic migration pattern, the Marmara Region of Turkey is selected for investigation. Actually, seismicity in the considered region is a consequence of the movement of the neighboring plates along the system of faults that makes up Northern Anatolian Fault (NAF). Accordingly, it was decided to investigate whether the earthquakes have an identifiable migration pattern in the direction of movement. As a single assumption, the migration pattern, if it exists, is assumed to follow Markovian behavior. At the end of the study, the results shed a light not only on the pattern of seismicity but also on the geophysical processes causing earthquakes.