Statistical Model of the Time Variability of the Characteristics of High-Altitude Jet Currents in the Northern Hemisphere Based on Satellite Measurements

In this paper we present a statistical model of the temporal variability of the characteristics of high-altitude jet streams in the Northern Hemisphere for 2007-2019. The model is based on the results of processing the measurement data of the SEVIRI radiometer. The area of Arctic sea ice, tropospheric temperatures at various levels and their differences between low and high latitudes, and various indices of large-scale processes characterizing climatic variability were used as predictors for constructing a multiple linear regression model. A detailed spectral analysis of the standardized series of characteristics of jet streams and predictors revealed the presence of periodic oscillations in a wide spectral range: from short-period to long-period (30-50 months). A model that describes the entire spectrum of temporal variations in the characteristics of jet streams, as well as a model for variations of only the long-period part, is constructed. The sea-ice area and a group of predictors associated with variations in tropospheric temperature are shown to make the greatest contribution to the variations in the characteristics of jet currents. The maximal contribution of the indices of large-scale atmospheric processes to the model quality does not exceed 10%. In general, the multiple linear regression model can describe up to 50-70% of the variability in the average area, maximal velocity, and latitudinal position of the jet stream center.