Reexamination of tropical cyclone heat potential in the western North Pacific

Tropical cyclone heat potential (TCHP), a measure of the oceanic heat content from the surface to the 26 degrees C isotherm depth, has been widely used for tropical cyclone (TC) forecasting and climatological studies. This study reexamines TCHP and the relation to TCs in the western North Pacific in view of the importance of the oceanic reference isothermal depth. Original TCHP is not applicable around the Kuroshio and Kuroshio Extension regions because the value is zero where sea surface temperature is below 26 degrees C. Therefore, this study proposes an improved version of TCHP as new TCHP under relatively weak baroclinic conditions in the atmospheric environment during the TC season from July to November. The alternative oceanic reference isothermal temperature (TRef24) used to calculate new TCHP is determined based on 2m dew point temperature or 24 degrees C when it is lower than 24 degrees C. We examine the relationship between TCHPsandchanges in best track central pressures during the previous 6 h from 2002 to 2012. Relatively high new TCHP is associated with deep oceanic isotherm depth and the decrease in TRef24 around the Kuroshio region from September to November. Case studies for Typhoons Maemi (2003), Songda (2004), and Roke (2011) reveal that TCs could intensify/redevelop around the Ryukyu Islands over warm eddies revealed by high new TCHP, where original TCHP is relatively low. The results indicate that new TCHP can be a metric for TC intensification caused by wind-induced surface heat exchange processes associated with atmospheric temperature and moisture near the surface and upper ocean stratification.