Energy Network Embodied in Trade along the Belt and Road: Spatiotemporal Evolution and Influencing Factors

As an important part of trade in the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) area, significant research attention has been devoted to direct energy transfer, whereas studies on energy embodied in non-energy products have largely been neglected. To present an overview of energy trade for the BRI members, this study combined multi-regional input-output (MRIO) analysis with complex network analysis to model energy use flows within the BRI's intermediate and final trade network during 2000-2015. Results showed that intermediate energy trade volume is about 7.29-fold larger than that of final trade. Russia and Mainland China were found to be the main net exporter and net importer in intermediate energy trade, respectively, but in final energy trade their roles are reversed. In intermediate energy trade, resource exploitation and heavy industry are the leading intermediate exporter and importer respectively, whereas household consumption is the largest importer (accounting for about three-fifths of the total) in final energy trade. Based on the complex network analysis, the BRI countries were found to trade widely in the final network while cooperating deeply in the intermediate network, with obvious small-world features. Mainland China and Russia were identified as key economies in both intermediate and final trade networks. In addition, quadratic assignment procedure (QAP) analysis was adopted to explore the determinants of the BRI energy trade from 2000 to 2015. It was found that geographic distance, land adjacency, and culture and language have a consistently significant impact on intermediate trade. Closer geographic distance, being adjacent to land, a higher level of economic development, and a larger size of population can promote final trade. This study aimed to supplement existing studies on direct energy trade and provides implications for understanding the sustainable energy development in the BRI area.