Transforming circumnavigating Kelvin waves that initiate and dissipate the Madden-Julian Oscillation

Analyses of Lagrangian model simulations and atmospheric sonde data reveal a key component of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO): circumnavigating equatorial Kelvin waves with dynamics that transform between dry and moist, which initiate and dissipate MJO convection. The same compositing procedure is applied to simulated and observed MJOs, which uses a coordinate system that moves with the precipitation centre, and treats developing, mature and dissipating stages separately. MJO structure and evolution are similar in the simulation and the observations. To the west of the developing convection, there is a broad region of low-level (upper-level) perturbation westerlies (easterlies), which is accompanied by a deep negative temperature perturbation. As this feature enters the MJO-formation region, convection intensifies on its eastern edge, and the zonal wind perturbations decrease in zonal extent and propagation speed. This process is shown to be a dynamical consequence of a largely dry, first baroclinic Kelvin wave entering a region where large-scale upward motion is mostly balanced by convective heating. As the MJO matures, a Kelvin wave of opposite sign emerges from its eastern edge, and makes the opposite transition (from moist to dry). The resulting wave, which includes low-level (upper-level) easterlies (westerlies) and a deep positive temperature perturbation, rapidly propagates around the world and dissipates MJO convection. The Kelvin wave that initiates MJO convection is shown to originate from the inactive phase of a previous MJO, so that the complete MJO cycle is characterized by the two kinds of Kelvin waves emerging from active and suppressed phases of MJO convection, circumnavigating the Tropics, and triggering the opposite phase.