How well do neurosurgeons predict survival in patients with high-grade glioma?

Due to the lack of reliable prognostic tools, prognostication and surgical decisions largely rely on the neurosurgeons' clinical prediction skills. The aim of this study was to assess the accuracy of neurosurgeons' prediction of survival in patients with high-grade glioma and explore factors possibly associated with accurate predictions. In a prospective single-center study, 199 patients who underwent surgery for high-grade glioma were included. After surgery, the operating surgeon predicted the patient's survival using an ordinal prediction scale. A survival curve was used to visualize actual survival in groups based on this scale, and the accuracy of clinical prediction was assessed by comparing predicted and actual survival. To investigate factors possibly associated with accurate estimation, a binary logistic regression analysis was performed. The surgeons were able to differentiate between patients with different lengths of survival, and median survival fell within the predicted range in all groups with predicted survival < 24 months. In the group with predicted survival > 24 months, median survival was shorter than predicted. The overall accuracy of surgeons' survival estimates was 41%, and over- and underestimations were done in 34% and 26%, respectively. Consultants were 3.4 times more likely to accurately predict survival compared to residents (p = 0.006). Our findings demonstrate that although especially experienced neurosurgeons have rather good predictive abilities when estimating survival in patients with high-grade glioma on the group level, they often miss on the individual level. Future prognostic tools should aim to beat the presented clinical prediction skills.