BACKGROUND: The prevalence of osteoporotic verte-bral compression fracture (OVCF) is increasing. The in-dications for and efficacy of balloon kyphoplasty (BKP) are controversial. We sought to identify predictors of outcome after BKP in patients with OVCF. METHODS: Between January 2001 and December 2019, 152 patients underwent BKP for painful OVCFs at our institution. This study included 115 patients who were followed for >12 months, and their data were retrospec-tively analyzed. With regard to the degree of independent living 1 year after BKP, patients were divided into a good outcome group (composed of patients who could inde-pendently go indoors) and a poor outcome group. We analyzed factors associated with outcome and subsequent OVCF. RESULTS: Mean age of patients was 77.9 years, 58.2% were female, 81% had a good outcome, and 19% had a poor outcome. Univariable analysis revealed significant differ-ences in age, bone mineral density, preoperative vertebral body decompression rate, body mass index (BMI), preop-erative Japanese Orthopaedic Association score, preop-erative modified Rankin Scale score, and subsequent OVCF. Multivariable logistic analysis showed that low BMI (odds ratio 1.415, 95% confidence interval 1.06-1.87, P = 0.046) and subsequent OVCF (odds ratio 0.13, 95% confidence in-terval 0.02-0.69, P = 0.044) were independent risk factors. The incidence of subsequent OVCF was also lower among patients with higher BMI (odds ratio 0.83, 95% confidence interval 0.72-0.95, P = 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: BMI and subsequent OVCF are the most influential predictors of independent living 1 year after BKP for OVCF.