Global warming and potential impact in the geography of illnesses

Based on climate simulations by general circulation models (GCMS), mean global temperature is expected to rise by 2 to 4 degrees C in coming decades. Such a global warming can have significant impacts on human activities, including human health. In this article, we describe the direct effects of increasing temperature on human health. Secondary effects of the influence of temperature on vector-borne diseases are also described. Different scenarios relating to increase in mortality deriving from heat waves and from the spread of diseases through insect vectors pose conceptual and methodological problems that must be confronted in the future if comparative studies are to be undertaken concerning the effect of global warming on human health in different countries.