A Framework for Capturing and Applying Models of Biological Response to Natural Resource Management

Natural resource managers need to asses the impacts of different natural resource management scenarios. Increasingly, models are used to support and communicate this complex trade-off process. One of the principle motivations for natural resource management (NRM) is to improve or protect the environment. However, our capacity to model a multi-faceted ecological response in rivers has been limited to single implementations. We present an ecological response modelling (ERM) framework to support this NRM process. The ERM framework is constructed in Microsoft. Net using The Invisible Modelling Environment (TIME) which provides the capacity for the tool to be interoperable with the e2 catchment modelling tool. This integration permits the ecological consequences of land management changes to be modelled simultaneously with predicted hydrology and nutrient changes. The ERM framework is based on a library of models of ecological response. Each model contains a mathematical function that transforms input time series of drivers into an output time series representing the response variable. The simple architecture which constrains the input and output to a single data type allows modularity such that models can be nested, combined into larger compound models or called by 3(rd) party modelling applications. The library of ecological response models has been configured to allow local (personal computer based) stand alone models or collections of models as well as an online library of models which may be downloaded and reused or modified for specific application. A key feature of each model within the ERM framework is the meta information. The collective meta information constitutes a 'confidence' schema and includes a confidence scoring system based on the underlying source, the data and interpretation required to generate the numerical function. The confidence score is presented in the output to provide context and supports the interpretation of numerical predictions. The history or lineage of each model is recorded along with the model author and the authors of parent models from which it has been built. Furthermore, the spatial applicability of each model is recorded as well as any other words of warning about appropriate application of the model. The final information provided by the confidence schema is an overall summary of the model that describes context, such as the reason for model development and the ability to link any associated information such as reports or web pages. Providing such information in these different forms allows an assessment of the appropriateness of the model application and robustness of the underlying science The ecological response modelling framework allows for a range of modelling approaches and adopts a good modelling practice approach by clearly representing the underlying science used to develop each model. The models can be made available to the broader modelling community via a shared library of ecological models. The intent is that this mechanism of publishing the associated meta information along with model functions will provide a greater level of transparency in ecological modelling, discourage improper model use and highlight areas of key research need.