Stochastic analysis of future scenarios for battery electric vehicle deployment and the upgrade of the electricity generation system in Spain

The feasibility of electrifying transport while reducing energy coming from non-renewable sources remains unknown. This study analyzes the current and future impacts caused by uncontrolled electric vehicle charging activities on the electrical grid, in terms of the possibility of having an undetermined number of electric vehicles plugged in at the same time. The results obtained show that charging battery electric vehicles could heavily impact the daily request of electric power, and the peak time for electricity consumption would become unmanageable. In particular, the Spanish grid is vulnerable due to the government's intention to achieve a gradually greater proportion of renewable energy through the closure of fossil fuel and nuclear power stations. This study proposes and evaluates a set of scenarios by developing a simplified stochastic model that considers the uncertainty involved in the problem. Electromobility can only be successful if the power system is considered. The evolution from the current situation to a series of future electrified mobility scenarios will heavily impact not only the annual energy consumption but also the daily electric power supply. The results show that the development of a charging network that allows vehicle batteries to be recharged during working hours seems to be the most suitable solution, while the uncontrolled development and management of a fast-recharging network would be the worst strategy.