The prediction of permafrost change along the Qinghai-Tibet Highway, China

A GIS- and GCM-based permafrost response model is used to predict changes in permafrost distribution along the Qinghai-Tibet Highway. By 2009 permafrost will degrade in the lower altitudinal zones of marginal and/or sporadic permafrost. However, by 2049 the lower permafrost limit on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau will have retreated approximately 5-10 km both north and south along the highway. By 2099, the model suggests that permafrost will remain only on the higher elevations of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Copyright (C) 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.