Implementation of an Artificial Neural Network for Storm Surge Forecasting

Accurate and timely storm surge forecasts are essential during tropical cyclone events in order to assess the magnitude and location of the impacts. Coupled ocean-atmosphere dynamical models provide accurate measures of storm surge but remain too computationally expensive to run for real-time forecasting purposes. Therefore, it is common to utilize a parametric vortex model, implemented within a hydrodynamic model, which decreases computational time at the expense of forecast accuracy. Recently, data-driven neural networks are being implemented as an alternative due to their combined efficiency and high accuracy. This work seeks to examine how an artificial neural network (ANN) can be used to make accurate storm surge predictions, and explores the added value of using a recurrent neural network (RNN). In particular, it is concerned with determining the parameters needed to successfully implement a neural network model for the Mid-Atlantic Bight region. The neural network models were trained with modeled data resulting from coupling of the Hybrid Weather Research and Forecasting cyclone model (HWCM) and the Advanced Circulation Model. An ensemble of synthetic, but physically plausible, cyclones were simulated using the HWCM and used as input for the hydrodynamic model. Tests of the ANN were conducted to investigate the optimal lead-time configuration of the input data and the neural network architecture needed to minimize storm surge forecast errors. Results highlight the accuracy of the ANN in forecasting moderate storm surge levels, while indicating a deficiency in capturing the magnitude of the peak values, which is improved in the implementation of the RNN. Key Points The artificial neural network (ANN) implemented was successful in forecasting moderate storm surge levels Limitations are observed in the ANN's ability to accurately predict peak-value water levels Tropical cyclone intensity and position are identified as the most important variables for accurate storm surge predictions