Reassessing hypoxia forecasts for the Gulf of Mexico

被引:85
|
作者
Scavia, Donald [1 ]
Donnelly, Kristina A. [1 ]
机构
[1] Univ Michigan, Sch Nat Resources & Environm, Ann Arbor, MI 48109 USA
关键词
D O I
10.1021/es0714235
中图分类号
X [环境科学、安全科学];
学科分类号
08 ; 0830 ;
摘要
Gulf of Mexico hypoxia has received considerable scientific and policy attention because of its potential ecological and economic impacts and implications for agriculture within its massive watershed. A 2000 assessment concluded that increased nitrate load to the Gulf since the 1950s was the primary cause of large-scale hypoxia areas. More recently, models have suggested that large-scale hypoxia did notstart until the mid-1970s, and that a 40-45% nitrogen load reduction may be needed to reach the hypoxia area goal of the Hypoxia Action Plan. Recently, USGS revised nutrient load estimates to the Gulf, and the Action Plan reassessment has questioned the role of phosphorus versus nitrogen in controlling hypoxia. In this paper,we re-evaluate model simulations, hindcasts, and forecasts using revised nitrogen loads, and test the ability of a phosphorus-driven version of the model to reproduce hypoxia trends. Our analysis suggests that, if phosphorus is limiting now, it became so because of relative increases in nitrogen loads during the 1970s and 1980s. While our model suggests nitrogen load reductions of 37-45% or phosphorus load reductions of 40-50% below the 1980-1996 average are needed, we caution that a phosphorus-only strategy is potentially dangerous, and suggest it would be prudent to reduce both.
引用
收藏
页码:8111 / 8117
页数:7
相关论文
共 50 条
  • [1] Hypoxia in the Gulf of Mexico
    Rabalais, NN
    Turner, RE
    Wiseman, WJ
    [J]. JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY, 2001, 30 (02) : 320 - 329
  • [2] Hypoxia, fertilizer, and the Gulf of Mexico
    Howarth, RW
    [J]. SCIENCE, 2001, 292 (5521) : 1485 - 1486
  • [3] Declining threshold for hypoxia in the Gulf of Mexico
    Stow, CA
    Qian, SS
    Craig, JK
    [J]. ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY, 2005, 39 (03) : 716 - 723
  • [4] Future perspectives for hypoxia in the northern Gulf of Mexico
    Justic, D
    Rabalais, NN
    Turner, RE
    [J]. COASTAL AND ESTUARINE SCIENCES, VOL 58: COASTAL HYPOXIA: CONSEQUENCES FOR LIVING RESOURCES AND ECOSYSTEMS, 2001, 58 : 435 - 449
  • [5] Gulf of Mexico hypoxia, aka "The dead zone"
    Rabalais, NN
    Turner, RE
    Wiseman, WJ
    [J]. ANNUAL REVIEW OF ECOLOGY AND SYSTEMATICS, 2002, 33 : 235 - 263
  • [6] Gulf of Mexico hypoxia: Alternate states and a legacy
    Turner, R. Eugene
    Rabalais, Nancy N.
    Justic, Dubravko
    [J]. ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY, 2008, 42 (07) : 2323 - 2327
  • [7] The science of hypoxia in the Northern Gulf of Mexico: A review
    Bianchi, T. S.
    DiMarco, S. F.
    Cowan, J. H., Jr.
    Hetland, R. D.
    Chapman, P.
    Day, J. W.
    Allison, M. A.
    [J]. SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT, 2010, 408 (07) : 1471 - 1484
  • [8] Sediment denitrification in the Gulf of Mexico zone of hypoxia
    Childs, CR
    Rabalais, NN
    Turner, RE
    Proctor, LM
    [J]. MARINE ECOLOGY PROGRESS SERIES, 2002, 240 : 285 - 290
  • [9] An economic perspective of hypoxia in the northern Gulf of Mexico
    Keithly, WR
    Ward, JM
    [J]. COASTAL AND ESTUARINE SCIENCES, VOL 58: COASTAL HYPOXIA: CONSEQUENCES FOR LIVING RESOURCES AND ECOSYSTEMS, 2001, 58 : 399 - 424
  • [10] MMS forecasts higher Gulf of Mexico oil, gas output
    Snow, N
    [J]. OIL & GAS JOURNAL, 2004, 102 (46) : 22 - +