In recent years, Vietnam has achieved rapid economic growth since from 1990 to 2004, its GDP nearly tripled and the percentage of poor households decreased from 58% in 1993 to 24% in 2004. However, economic growth has not been shared by all segments of the population, especially those in rural areas and children. Of a total Vietnamese population of 85 million, there is an estimated children population of 30 million, 24 million of which are estimated to live below the poverty line. In this paper, we report a work-in-progress project, the objective of which is to create a computer-based model of childhood poverty in Vietnam using a participatory agent-based modelling approach for two main purposes: (1) for exploring the causes and consequences of childhood poverty, and (2) for evaluating the effects of a range of scenarios and policies related to the Millenium Development Goals (as set out by the tripartite initiative between the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific, the Asian Development Bank, and the United Nations Development Programme) in view of determining policies that are robust and effective over a wide a range of conditions. A participatory modelling (PM) approach based on the agent-based modelling (ABM) paradigm is used to create a model of childhood poverty due to the complexity of the system, the involvement of multiple stakeholders with limited resources and often competing objectives, and the multiple levels of interactions inherent in such a system. In participatory modelling, members of the public and stakeholders of the system participate in the modelling process to ensure that the model incorporates accurate information on the system as this information is difficult to obtain by other means. ABM is increasingly becoming popular for simulating social systems because they can represent important phenomenon difficult to capture in conventional mathematical models. Using agents to model childhood poverty is a novel approach with distinct advantages over conventional modelling techniques such as micro-economic theory whereby economic agents are assumed to be: (1) rational (have well-defined objectives and are able to optimize their behaviour), and (2) homogeneous (have identical characteristics and rules of behaviour). In ABM, these assumptions are relaxed; for example according to Simon, decision-makers often select a satisfactory alternative rather than an optimal one. An ABM can capture quantitative as well as qualitative factors and can also capture their complex interactions in an intuitive way (at agent level). The strategy in this research is not to collect data directly from a sample of Vietnamese children; rather the intention is to make use of the Young Lives data made available to the project courtesy of the Vietnam Academy of Social Sciences. The Young Lives data and other secondary data sources (e. g. the General Statistics Office of Vietnam, etc.) will be analysed to extract the relevant behaviours, interactions, statistical, and economical for the model. Since the analysis of secondary data alone cannot provide a comprehensive set of factors that accounts for childhood poverty in Vietnam, collection of data from other sources is envisaged. Workshops will be organized to collect data from basically two groups of people: (1) adolescents and people working with children (teachers, health care workers, social workers, etc.), and (2) policy-makers from Vietnamese government institutions (Ministry of Education and Training, Ministry of Health, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, Ministry of Labour, Invalids and Social Affairs, various programs and committees at National and Provincial levels, etc.), staff of Non-Governmental Organisations operating in Vietnam (World Vision, Vietnam Save the Children, etc.), UNICEF, UNDP, World Bank, Asian Development Bank, etc. The expected outcomes of the project include: (1) a model that includes a comprehensive range of factors affecting childhood poverty, (2) a list of scenarios and policies related to the Millenium Development Goals and relevant to childhood poverty, (3) a model capable of simulating these scenarios and policies, and (4) a list of robust policies for poverty reduction in Vietnam.
