Incumbent popularity and vote choice in gubernatorial elections

Studies of gubernatorial elections have found vote choice to be a function of party identification, assessments of economic conditions, and the president's job performance but have not tested for a referendum effect concerning the incumbent governor. This analysis uses state polling data to demonstrate that voters with favorable images of the incumbent governor have a higher probability of voting for the candidate of the incumbent's party. The effect is greater when the incumbent seeks reelection, but it is present in open contests as well.