On reliability challenges of repairable systems using hierarchical bayesian inference and maximum likelihood estimation

被引：0
|
作者：
BahooToroody, Ahmad [1 ]
Abaei, Mohammad Mahdi [2 ]
Arzaghi, Ehsan [3 ]
Song, Guozheng [4 ]
De Carlo, Filippo [1 ]
Paltrinieri, Nicola [4 ]
Abbassi, Rouzbeh [5 ]
机构：
[1] Univ Florence, Dept Ind Engn DIEF, Florence, Italy
[2] Delft Univ Technol, Dept Maritime Transport & Technol, NL-2629 HS Delft, Netherlands
[3] Queensland Univ Technol, Sci & Engn Fac, Brisbane, Qld 4000, Australia
[4] Norwegian Univ Sci & Technol NTNU, Dept Mech & Ind Engn, N-7031 Trondheim, Norway
[5] Macquarie Univ, Sch Engn, Sydney, NSW, Australia
来源：
PROCESS SAFETY AND ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION | 2020年 / 135卷
关键词：
Repairable system; Failure modelling; Time dependency; Hierarchical Bayesian analysis; Maximum likelihood estimation; NONHOMOGENEOUS POISSON-PROCESS; MODEL; OPERATION;
D O I：
10.1016/j.psep.2019.12.039
中图分类号：
X [环境科学、安全科学];
学科分类号：
08 ; 0830 ;
摘要：
Failure modelling and reliability assessment of repairable systems has been receiving a great deal of attention due to its pivotal role in risk and safety management of process industries. Meanwhile, the level of uncertainty that comes with characterizing the parameters of reliability models require a sound parameter estimator tool. For the purpose of comparison and cross-verification, this paper aims at identifying the most efficient and minimal variance parameter estimator. Hierarchical Bayesian modelling (HBM) and Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) approaches are applied to investigate the effect of utilizing observed data on inter-arrival failure time modelling. A case study of Natural Gas Regulating and Metering Stations in Italy has been considered to illustrate the application of proposed framework. The results highlight that relaxing the renewal process assumption and taking the time dependency of the observed data into account will result in more precise failure models. The outcomes of this study can help asset managers to find the optimum approach to reliability assessment of repairable systems. (C) 2019 Institution of Chemical Engineers. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
引用
收藏
页码：157 / 165
页数：9
相关论文
共 50 条
  • [1] On reliability challenges of repairable systems using hierarchical bayesian inference and maximum likelihood estimation
    BahooToroody, Ahmad
    Abaei, Mohammad Mahdi
    Arzaghi, Ehsan
    Song, Guozheng
    De Carlo, Filippo
    Paltrinieri, Nicola
    Abbassi, Rouzbeh
    [J]. De Carlo, Filippo (filippo.decarlo@unifi.it), 1600, Institution of Chemical Engineers (135): : 157 - 165
  • [2] BAYESIAN-INFERENCE AND OPTIMALITY OF MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATION
    HIGGINS, JJ
    [J]. INTERNATIONAL STATISTICAL REVIEW, 1977, 45 (01) : 9 - 11
  • [3] Piecewise NHPP Models with Maximum Likelihood Estimation for Repairable Systems
    Guo, Huairui
    Mettas, Adamantios
    Sarakakis, Georgios
    Niu, Pengying
    [J]. ANNUAL RELIABILITY AND MAINTAINABILITY SYMPOSIUM, 2010 PROCEEDINGS, 2010,
  • [4] Bayesian inference with reliability methods without knowing the maximum of the likelihood function
    Betz, Wolfgang
    Beck, James L.
    Papaioannou, Iason
    Straub, Daniel
    [J]. PROBABILISTIC ENGINEERING MECHANICS, 2018, 53 : 14 - 22
  • [5] Bayesian and maximum likelihood estimation of hierarchical response time models
    Farrell, Simon
    Ludwig, Casimir J. H.
    [J]. PSYCHONOMIC BULLETIN & REVIEW, 2008, 15 (06) : 1209 - 1217
  • [6] Bayesian and maximum likelihood estimation of hierarchical response time models
    Simon Farrell
    Casimir J. H. Ludwig
    [J]. Psychonomic Bulletin & Review, 2008, 15 : 1209 - 1217
  • [7] Bayesian Inference for the Piecewise Exponential Model for the Reliability of Multiple Repairable Systems
    Arab, Ali
    Rigdon, Steven E.
    Basu, Asit P.
    [J]. JOURNAL OF QUALITY TECHNOLOGY, 2012, 44 (01) : 28 - 38
  • [8] BAYESIAN-INFERENCE AND OPTIMALITY OF MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATION - EXCHANGE OF CORRESPONDENCE
    SCHNEEWEISS, H
    [J]. INTERNATIONAL STATISTICAL REVIEW, 1978, 46 (01) : 75 - 76
  • [9] IMPROVEMENT OF HUMAN RELIABILITY USING BAYESIAN HIERARCHICAL INFERENCE
    KELLY, CW
    BARCLAY, S
    [J]. PROCEEDINGS ANNUAL RELIABILITY AND MAINTAINABILITY SYMPOSIUM, 1974, 7 (02): : 320 - 328
  • [10] Combining imprecise Bayesian and maximum likelihood estimation for reliability growth models
    Utkin, Lev V.
    Zatenko, Svetlana I.
    Coolen, Frank P. A.
    [J]. ISIPTA '09: PROCEEDINGS OF THE SIXTH INTERNATIONAL SYMPOSIUM ON IMPRECISE PROBABILITY: THEORIES AND APPLICATIONS, 2009, : 421 - +
12345