Agricultural drought risk assessment based on crop simulation, risk curves, and risk maps in Huaibei Plain of Anhui Province, China

Drought disasters are natural disasters with complex mechanisms and multiple characteristics. The quantitative evaluation of crop drought risk is central to managing drought risk and reducing loss. Therefore, assessing drought loss risk from the perspective of the drought formation process has scientific and prbactical value. In this study, we constructed crop drought loss risk curves to describe the development of drought risk loss. The intensity of drought events was expressed by the occurrence frequency, which was calculated based on long-term precipitation (1955-2012) and the copula function. The possible loss risk caused by drought was expressed as yield loss, which was simulated using the DSSAT-SROPGRO-soybean model. The spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of agricultural drought loss risk in the Huaibei Plain of Anhui Province, China, were represented by risk distribution maps. The main results showed that: 1) Drought events occurred more frequently in northern regions (Huaibei and Suzhou), but the intensity was lower. 2) Without irrigation, Fuyang was the region with the highest potential drought loss risk (more than 80% yield loss rate). 3) Irrigation had a significant effect on reducing drought risk loss, while efficiency was influenced by the spatiotemporal distribution of precipitation. This study has established and implemented a quantitative framework for regional drought risk assessment by creating drought risk curves and risk maps, which have significant value for improving the regional agricultural drought risk management level.