FORECASTING DEMAND IN THE LOGISTICS MARKET: A CASE STUDY OF LOGISTICS CENTER VRSAC

This paper proposes a new methodological approach for estimation of demands and flows in the logistics market. Proposed approach is developed in a comprehensive way to better understand and evaluate perspective trends of logistics flows and demands for logistics services in conditions of great uncertainty, variability and unpredictability of geopolitical, economic, commercial, transport and traffic factors and opportunities in the logistics market. The procedure is applied in the concrete example for the forecasting of demands for logistics services and subsystems of future logistics center Vrsac. In the case when there is a large variability in demand and when there are no obvious trends that can be applied in the future, the authors have decided to carry out the prediction of three possible scenarios for economic and social development. The goal was to develop approach that will use the larger field of possible future events on the logistics market.