Statistical analysis of the fluctuating counts of fecal bacteria in the water of Lake Kinneret

Counts of E. coli, Enteroccoci and fecal coliforms in four sites around Lake Kinneret (The Sea of Galilee), collected every 2-4 weeks for about 5 years during 1995-2002 showed irregular fluctuations punctuated by aperiodic outbursts of variable magnitude. Because of the haphazard nature of fecal contamination and large intervals between successive counts, these patterns were described by probabilistic models, based on the truncated Laplace or Extreme Value distribution. Their applicability was tested by comparing the predicted frequencies of counts exceeding different levels calculated from the first half of each record with those actually observed in its second half. Despite the records imperfections and minor violations of the underlying models' assumptions, there was a reasonable agreement between the estimated and actual frequencies. This demonstrated that it is possible to translate the irregular fluctuation pattern into a set of probabilities of future high counts. In principle, such probabilities can be used to quantify the water's fecal contamination pattern and as a tool to assess the efficacy of preventive measures to reduce it. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.