CHA2DS2-VASc and has-BLED scores do not accurately stratify risk for stroke or bleed in fall victims with atrial fibrillation

Background: Falls are the leading cause of morbidity and mortality in the elderly. Non-valvular Atrial fibrillation (AF) is present in up to 9% of this group and often requires oral anticoagulation (OAC). The CHA(2)DS(2)-VASc and HAS-BLED scores are validated tools assessing risk of ischemic stroke from AF and major bleeding (MB) from OAC. It is unclear if these predictions remain accurate in post-fall patients. This study seeks to determine the stroke and major bleeding rate in atrial fibrillation patients after a ground level fall and identify if validated risk scoring systems accurately stratify risk in this cohort. Methods: Retrospective review of patients with AF presented to the emergency department after a fall. CHA(2)DS(2)-VASc and HAS-BLED scores were calculated. Follow up information was reviewed to 1 year. Patients were grouped according to discharge thromboprophylaxis plan (DTP): no treatment, Anti platelet (AP), OAC, and AP + OAC. Outcomes were ischemic stroke, MB, or death at 1 year. Ischemic stroke and MB rates were calculated. Kruskal-Wallis, X-2, Fisher's exact, and multivariable logistic regression were used to evaluate for clinical associations. Results: 192 patients were included. MB rate was 14.5 bleeds/100 person-years, and ischemic stroke rate was 10.9/100 person-years. There were no observed differences between DTPs. Overall, one-year mortality was 22.1%. On unadjusted analysis, CHA(2)DS(2)-VASc did associate with ischemic stroke (p = 0.03); HAS BLED did not associate with MB (p = 0.17). After logistic regression accounting for known risk factors, neither system associated with ischemic stroke or MB. Conclusions: Fall patients are at higher risk for both ischemic stroke and MB compared to previously published reports. Current risk assessment tools should be used with caution. Further study of risk factors is warranted to guide medication decisions in these patients. (C) 2021 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.