China's Natural Gas Demand Projections and Supply Capacity Analysis in 2030

This paper builds an econometric model to analyze the income elasticity and price elasticities of sectoral natural gas demand and forecasts China's natural gas demand up to 2030. The findings indicate that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship among sectoral natural gas demand, sectoral income and various fuel prices. The results also indicate that most price elasticities are smaller relative to developed countries; the effect of fuel prices on natural gas demand is partly offset by the government regulation. In the Business As Usual (BAU) scenario, China's natural gas demand will reach 340 bcm and 528 bcm and its foreign dependence will reach 27.9% and 43.2% in 2020 and 2030, respectively. The forecast and discussion in this paper provide important insights into China's energy policy design and pricing mechanism reform, and into the potential impact of China's growing natural gas demand on global energy market dynamics.