Trajectories of Adolescent Alcohol Use: The Effect of Individual and Social Risk Factors by Race

This study examined racial differences across African-American, Hispanic, and White participants in the impact that individual and social risk factors have on drinking behavior trajectories. Data from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health from seventh through ninth graders (N = 4,372) were used. Participants reported on frequency of drinking across the four waves and risk factors at Wave 1. Growth mixture modeling revealed four trajectories for alcohol use that included Abstainers, Early Starters, Late Starters, and De-Escalators. Social and individual indicators of risk were differently predictive of group membership to the problematic drinking trajectories. Differences across racial groups suggested that a lack of future orientation may be a salient risk factor for African-American and Hispanic youths' alcohol use, and peer alcohol use may be a salient risk factor for White youths' alcohol use. The findings of this study suggest that there may be individual differences in risk factors that provide insight for prevention efforts.