Energy production and flood control: conflicting objectives

Strearnflow forecasts can minimize flood impacts and maximize energy production, despite their conflicting objectives. This paper presents a method of determining forecasts to operation rules for the Foz do Areia Reservoir, located on the Iguacu River in south Brazil. The method uses a ARIMA model combined with a rainfall-runoff model. The main uncertainty in the steamflow forecast is the randomness of future rainfall. Together with the forecast model, a reservoir operation model was developed which maximizes energy production with appropriate restrictions both upstream and downstream. Flood protection for the riparian population is also improved. In the case of the Foz do Areia Reservoir, application of the model shows an improvement in dealing with the restrictions and a better recovery of the reservoir storage.