Modelling the slow mean-reversion of the Central and Eastern European countries′ real exchange rates

In this paper we propose a new modelling approach of the exchange rate misalignments in four transition countries: Hungary, Poland, Slovakia and Slovenia. We provide an empirical framework that takes into account two characteristics of these misalignments: while the fundamentals and policies adjust to restore equilibrium towards the long-term exchange rate, there are factors that hinder a fast mean-reverting dynamics. When the exchange rates adjust slowly to their equilibrium long-run values, the standard regressions that assume zero-mean misalignments present some drawbacks and one needs a model that helps to capture the time-varying aspects of the misalignment dynamics. The model proposed in this paper reproduces well the periods of overvaluation and undervaluation observed in the four countries.