How Do We Deal with Uncertain Information? Effects of Verbal and Visual Expressions of Uncertainty on Learning

Based on the knowledge generation model for visual analytics including uncertainty propagation and human trust building (Sacha et al. 2016), the cognitive theory of multimedia learning (Mayer, 2014), the multimedia principle (Butcher, 2014), and previous studies on the effects of different uncertainty visualization styles, an integrated theoretical approach is proposed to examine the influence of different degrees of information uncertainty and different uncertainty visualization styles on processing pictures of two archeological reconstructions with accompanying audio explanations presented in a multimedia learning environment. A 4 x 3 design with condition (without uncertainty visualization vs. stop light colors vs. geometric contrast vs. both uncertainty visualizations) as the between-subjects factor and uncertainty value (uncertain vs. medium vs. certain) as the within-subject factor was used. The results showed that appearance of certain content, its uncertainty values, and their verbal scientific justifications were remembered better than uncertain ones. Furthermore, stop light colors enhanced the memory of uncertainty values compared to no uncertainty visualization and were better understood, discriminated, and transferred than geometric contrast. Geometric contrast decreased the memory of the appearance of uncertain architectural elements compared to no uncertainty visualization and was better than stop light colors regarding the memory of the appearance of certain architectural elements. The study integrates and extends existing theories by showing that certain contents are processed with higher priority than uncertain contents and that the multimedia effect is also valid for metainformation such as the uncertainties of contents. Finally, recommendations for designing learning material including uncertainty visualizations are given.