Temporal changes in serum uric acid and risk for metabolic syndrome: a longitudinal cohort study

Background Studies suggested elevated serum uric acid (SUA) levels are associated with metabolic syndrome (MetS). However, it remains unclear whether baseline SUA and temporal changes predict MetS. The study aimed to investigate the association of baseline SUA and its temporal longitudinal changes with subsequent risk of MetS. Methods We conducted a retrospective longitudinal cohort study among 44,176 healthy participants aged 18 years and older without MetS at enrollment. The baseline levels and longitudinal changes of SUA were categorized by gender-specific quintiles. Participants were followed to identify newly developed MetS. We employed Cox model to investigate the relationship between SUA and MetS in men and women separately. Results During a median follow-up of 2.4 years, 5461 (12.36%) participants developed MetS. After adjustment of demographic, major clinical factors, a higher level of baseline SUA was associated with a significant higher risk of MetS. The corresponding HRs (95% CIs) comparing participants at extreme quintiles were 2.59 (2.32, 2.88) in men and 2.87 (2.41, 3.43) in women. Larger longitudinal absolute increase in SUA was also related to an increases risk of MetS (top vs bottom quintile, 1.70 [1.53, 1.89] in men and 1.94 [1.65, 2.28] in women), regardless the level of baseline SUA. Similarly, the HRs about SUA longitudinal percentage changes were 1.74 (1.56, 1.94) in men and 2.01 (1.69, 2.39) in women, respectively. Moreover, we observed the highest risk of MetS among participants with both higher baseline SUA and larger longitudinal increase in SUA. Conclusion Higher baseline SUA and larger temporal increase in SUA independently predicted risk of MetS, highlighting the importance of longitudinal SUA monitoring and management for primary prevention of MetS in the general population.