Predicting the Trends of Social Events on Chinese Social Media

被引:5
|
作者
Zhou, Yang [1 ,2 ]
Zhang, Lei [3 ]
Liu, Xiaoqian [1 ]
Zhang, Zhen [1 ]
Bai, Shuotian [4 ]
Zhu, Tingshao [1 ]
机构
[1] Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Psychol, Beijing, Peoples R China
[2] Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Dept Psychol, Beijing, Peoples R China
[3] Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, VA USA
[4] Hubei Univ Econ, Sch Informat Engn, Wuhan, Hubei, Peoples R China
关键词
social events; social media; trend prediction; COLLECTIVE ACTION; ENGAGE;
D O I
10.1089/cyber.2017.0142
中图分类号
B84 [心理学];
学科分类号
04 ; 0402 ;
摘要
Growing interest in social events on social media came along with the rapid development of the Internet. Social events that occur in the "real" world can spread on social media (e.g., Sina Weibo) rapidly, which may trigger severe consequences and thus require the government's timely attention and responses. This article proposes to predict the trends of social events on Sina Weibo, which is currently the most popular social media in China. Based on the theories of social psychology and communication sciences, we extract an unprecedented amount of comprehensive and effective features that relate to the trends of social events on Chinese social media, and we construct the trends of prediction models by using three classical regression algorithms. We found that lasso regression performed better with the precision 0.78 and the recall 0.88. The results of our experiments demonstrated the effectiveness of our proposed approach.
引用
收藏
页码:533 / 539
页数:7
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