Exchange rate determination, macroeconomic dynamics and stability under heterogeneous behavioral FX expectations

In this paper the role of behavioral forecasting rules of chartist and fundamentalist type for the dynamic macroeconomic stability of a two-country system is investigated. The main result of the paper is that for large trend-chasing parameters in the chartist rule used in the FX market, not only this market but also the entire macroeconomic system is destabilized. This outcome takes place despite of a monetary policy conduction in both countries which satisfies the Taylor Principle, and thus highlights the limits of monetary policy as a macroeconomic stabilization instrument in a world of boundedly rational agents. (c) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.