FUTURE PROJECTIONS OF OFFSHORE WIND ENERGY POTENTIALS IN PORTUGAL SIMULATED BY THE COSMO-CLM REGIONAL MODEL

The market viability of wind power generation may significantly increase in future decades due to its increasing energy efficiency and very limited impacts in terms of global warming. In recent years, more and more attention has been given to the evaluation of the huge offshore wind potential along coastal areas. This study aims at evaluating the potential of the offshore wind resource for Western Iberia. With this aim, regional climate model simulations performed with the COSMO-CLM with spatial resolution of approximately 20 km are evaluated. Model simulations driven with ERA-40 reanalysis boundary conditions are analysed to assess wind potentials for the recent-past period (1961-2000). Moreover, simulations with boundary conditions given by the global climate model ECHAM5 are investigated, both for recent (1960-2000, 20C scenario) and future (2041-2070; SRES AlB scenario) climatic conditions. An offshore wind turbine Vestas V80 2.0 MW is considered as a benchmark turbine. The analysis is performed on the Portuguese coast and nearby coastal areas. Results reveal that the greatest potential for offshore wind energy production is found along the north-western Portuguese coast. The climate change projections suggest a decrease in the wind energy potentials over most of the studied areas, except for the region between 40 degrees and 43 degrees N during summer (JJA). Nevertheless the offshore wind energy potentials will remain at high levels, particularly for the north-western coast.