Process modelling and decision support for flood and coastal defence systems

A structure for decision support for flood and coast defence systems is developed. The approach is founded on detailed empirical studies carried out with decision makers currently working in flood and coast defence in the UK. These studies have demonstrated the complexity of the decision making process. A stable model of the decision making process has nonetheless been developed based on the concept of transformation processes. These fit within a decision making hierarchy which cascades from national policy through catchment and shoreline management planning to individual schemes on reaches of river or units of coastline. At the same time the structure reflects the ongoing loops of perception, decision-making and action which characterise decision making processes. Uncertainty management involves exploring and accounting for the sources and nature of uncertainty in decision making. The framework developed in this paper is being used as the basis for new uncertainty management tools.