Seismic Risk Assessment Using Stochastic Nonlinear Models

The basic input when seismic risk is estimated in urban environments is the expected physical damage level of buildings. The vulnerability index and capacity spectrum-based methods are the tools that have been used most to estimate the probability of occurrence of this important variable. Although both methods provide adequate estimates, they involve simplifications that are no longer necessary, given the current capacity of computers. In this study, an advanced method is developed that avoids many of these simplifications. The method starts from current state-of-the-art approaches, but it incorporates non-linear dynamic analysis and a probabilistic focus. Thus, the method considers not only the nonlinear dynamic response of the structures, modeled as multi degree of freedom systems (MDoF), but also uncertainties related to the loads, the geometry of the buildings, the mechanical properties of the materials and the seismic action. Once the method has been developed, the buildings are subjected to earthquake records that are selected and scaled according to the seismic hazard of the site and considering the probabilistic nature of the seismic actions. The practical applications of the method are illustrated with a case study: framed reinforced concrete buildings that are typical of an important district, the Eixample, in Barcelona (Spain). The building typology and the district were chosen because the seismic risk in Barcelona has been thoroughly studied, so detailed information about buildings' features, seismic hazard and expected risk is available. Hence, the current results can be compared with those obtained using simpler, less sophisticated methods. The main aspects of the method are presented and discussed first. Then, the case study is described and the results obtained with the capacity spectrum method are compared with the results using the approach presented here. The results at hand show reasonably good agreement with previous seismic damage and risk scenarios in Barcelona, but the new method provides richer, more detailed, more reliable information. This is particularly useful for seismic risk reduction, prevention and management, to move towards more resilient, sustainable cities.