Deforestation drivers in the Brazilian Amazon: assessing new spatial predictors

Researches on the deforestation of the Amazon have gained prominence in the last recent years, mainly with the change in the policy regarding the facing of this phenomenon by the Brazilian government. Therefore, an understanding about the causes that pressure the occurrence of deforestation remains relevant and has a leading role in the world. Therefore, the aim of this study is to perform the analysis of the spatial variability of the reasons for the deforestation in the Amazon Biome, in Brazil, (2010-2019). To achieve this goal, 14 variables were selected, the choice and adjustment of the regression model were determined and a diagnosis was carried out in order to verify the most appropriate model. To achieve this purpose, a geographic database was structured in a geographic information system environment. The main results revealed that the adjusted R2 of the Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) was 0.96, that is, the GWR model explains 96% of the variations in deforestation. Therefore, it was observed a significant gain when using this model. In addition, it was also observed that the average variable of the number of oxen was, among those analyzed, the one that showed the highest correlation with deforestation. Thus, it was found that the livestock sector in southern Amazonia is the main economic agent that pressures large areas of deforestation, since stockfarming is practiced extensively. Finally, it was concluded that the municipalities with the largest areas of deforestation formed a cluster in the southern portion of the Amazon, in the arc of deforestation.