Reassessing a proposed low-energy strategy for the UK

Predictions, as made in Leach et al. (A low-energy strategy for the United Kingdom. Science Reviews Ltd., Austria: International Institute for Environment and Development, 1979.) have been compared with actual values for subsequent years. Their disparities are discussed, together with the associated lessons. It would have been unreasonable to expect the 1979 predictive procedure to anticipate the "dash for gas", but it can be realised in retrospect that greater emphasis should have been placed on the likely increasing concern (of successive governments) with environmental protection. In any strategy, the main mechanism (within a government's control) to achieve energy thrift is to raise the unit prices for (i) all fossil fuels and electricity derived from them and especially for (ii) polluting fuels for private cars and aircraft. These measures would simultaneously reduce the overall rate of environmental degradation. There should also be more introductory subsidies, provided by the state, for the implementation of all energy-thrift measures and equipment (e.g. combined heat-and-power plant), that satisfy the criterion of achieving a pay-back period of less than 7 years. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.