A Bayesian approach for health monitoring of critical systems

Bayesian medical(1) monitoring(2) is a concept based on using real-time performance-related data to make statistical predictions about a patient's future health. The following paper discusses the fundamentals behind the medical monitoring concept and the application to monitoring the health of nuclear reactors. Necessary assumptions are discussed regarding distributions and failure-rate calculations. A simple example is performed to illustrate the effectiveness of the methods. The methods perform very well for the thirteen subjects in the example, with a clear failure sequence identified for eleven of the subjects.