Transparency in Energy Scenario Studies: Survey of Different Approaches Combining Scenario Planning, Energy System Analysis, and Multi-criteria Analysis

The transition of today's energy supply systems to renewable energy technologies requires planning processes that are usually supported by energy scenario studies. If scenario planning, energy system analysis, and multi-criteria analysis are combined in the design of such energy scenario studies, two possible method combinations can be identified in the literature. In this paper, these method combinations are discussed with regard to transparency and communication of uncertainties, which are basic requirements for energy scenarios. Finally, a clear specification of the intended purpose and of the method commendation is recommended to improve transparency in energy scenario studies and avoid over-interpretation by decision makers.