Nuclear technology and reactor safety - National and international perspectives

The 16th World Energy Congress held in Tokyo in early October 1995 reminded us of the dramatic development to be expected in world energy consumption over the next few decades. In that development, the center of global energy consumption will shift from the industrialized countries to the developing countries and the threshold countries. In 1995, 50% of the world energy consumption are due to the 20% of the world population living in the OECD countries, and 35%, to the 70% of the world population living in the developing countries and the threshold countries. According to estimates by the World Energy Council, however, the share of today's developing countries and threshold countries in world energy consumption will rise to more than 50% by the year 2020. At the same time, the contribution by these countries to global CO2 emissions rise to more than 50%, in the case of SO2 emissions, even to 70%. These developments are expected to raise worldwide energy consumption by some 50% by the year 2020, despite increasingly more efficient energy uses. At the same time, annual emissions of the greenhouse gas, carbon dioxide, will rise by more than 40%, despite all appeals seeking to curb this development. The part of the world population dependent on imported energy will rise from 50% to 80%. Electricity, as a particularly ''intelligent'' form of energy, will hold an increasingly larger share in total energy consumption. In many countries, nuclear power is making important contributions towards an independent power supply, low-cost electricity generation, and the avoidance of pollutant emissions. Under these circumstances, it must be assumed that nuclear power will continue to play an important role in world energy supply.