Comparative Study of Performance of CMIP3 GCMs in Simulating the East Asian Monsoon Variability

This study evaluates variability of East Asian Monsoon simulated by 24 coupled general circulation models (GCMs) participating in Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project 3 (CMIP3). Fifty years (1950 - 1999) of each model's twentieth-century climate simulation are analyzed and compared with observed data. Both East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) and East Asian Winter Monsoon (EAWM) are considered. Suitable indices are selected to analyze EASM and EAWM. The Wang-Fan index, associated with 850 hPa circulation pattern and tripole rainfall pattern are considered to analyze EASM. ICHENW, associated with 850 hPa circulation pattern, IGONGDY, associated with Siberian High, and ISUNBM, associated with 500 hPa East Asian trough are considered for analysis of EAWM. Inter-decadal and inter-annual variability of the EASM and EAWM are major focus of this study. The results indicate that, amplitude of inter-annual component EASM becomes larger after 1980's. The decadal component shows, weakening trend and switching from positive monsoon phase to negative monsoon phase in mid-80s for both EASM and EAWM. The simulated composite differences between weak and strong monsoon decades by models with above mentioned characteristics are compared with observation for further evaluation. The EASM weakening is associated with weaker southwesterly and stronger anti-cyclonic pattern over Western North Pacific and results in more rainfall in south and north China, Korea, Japan and less rainfall in central China. The EAWM weakening is associated with weakening of Siberian High and temperature rise over East Asia. EASM and EAWM matrices are constructed according to the relative merits of GCMs.