The prediction of 30-day mortality in patients with primary pontine hemorrhage: a scoring system comparison

Background and purpose Owing to its low morbidity but high mortality, no accurate scoring system focuses on primary pontine hemorrhage (PPH) has been established. We aim to compare the performances of the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II and the Simplified Acute Physiology Score (SAPS) II with the ICH score in predicting the 30-day mortality in patients with PPH. Methods We conducted a retrospective analysis of patients admitted with a diagnosis of PPH to a university-affiliated hospital in southern China from May 2000 to June 2011. Data related to patient demographics and that necessary to calculate APACHE II, SAPS II, and ICH score were recorded. Performances of these scoring systems were presented as calibration and discrimination, which were measured by the HosmerLemeshow goodness-of-fit test and the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, respectively. Results Among 75 patients with PPH finally included, 31 (41.3%) died within 30 similar to days. SAPS II (?2 similar to=similar to 6.57, P similar to=similar to 0.682) had the best calibration, followed by APACHE II (?2 similar to=similar to 8.06, P similar to=similar to 0.428) and ICH score (?2 similar to=similar to 4.94, P similar to=similar to 0.176). Furthermore, in terms of area under the ROC curve, APACHE II (0.919) was more discriminative than SAPS II (0.890) and ICH score (0.844). Conclusions In predicting 30-day mortality in patients with PPH, SAPS II has the best calibration, while APACHE II has the highest discrimination. The ICH score, which is easier and simpler to calculate, should be modified for PPH.