Sustaining the peace after ethnic civil wars

We explore factors that influence the duration of peace after an ethnic civil war. Results from a series of survival models indicate that political and economic discrimination against the ethnic group that was involved in the war on the opposition side diminishes chances for peace. This finding is robust across different model specifications. Group size, group concentration, war duration and war outcome also influence the risk of war recurrence, although these results are not as robust as those for ethnic discrimination. The intensity of the war and its humanitarian consequencesdeaths, displacement, and genocidedo not seem significantly to influence the duration of post-war peace. Taken together, our findings show that the way ethnic groups interact with each other after a war is a more important factor than the level of violence during the war. Peace and ethnic co-existence are possible in the aftermath of ethnic conflicts.