Associations between existing and newly diagnosed chronic health conditions and change in subjective life expectancy: Results from a panel study

Background: Subjective life expectancy (SLE) is a vital predictor of mortality, health and retirement. Nevertheless, we have sparse knowledge about what drives changes in SLE. Having a chronic health condition (CHC) is probably associated with a change SLE. However, how CHCs are associated with changes in SLE may depend on whether the CHC was newly diagnosed and the type of CHC. Aim: We hypothesize that newly diagnosed CHCs will be strongly negatively associated with changes in SLE than existing CHCs. As CHCs vary in their presentation and prognosis, we differentiate associations between five CHCs - arthritis, cardiovascular diseases, sleep disorders, psychological disorders and life-threatening conditions - and changes in SLE. Method: Data from two waves of a Dutch pension panel survey, collected 3 years apart in 2015 and 2018, were used. The analytical sample included 4824 older workers between the ages of 60-65 years at wave 1. Data were analysed longitudinally using a conditional change ordered logistic regression model. Results: In general, newly diagnosed CHCs were strongly negatively associated with changes in SLE, relative to having no CHCs. Existing CHCs were also negatively associated with changes in SLE, but to a weaker strength. Interestingly, associations between CHCs and the change in SLE differed based on the CHC in question. Conclusion: Newly diagnosed life-threatening conditions, psychological disorders and cardiovascular diseases are strongly negatively associated with changes in SLE. These results provide insight into the differences in how older workers with CHCs experience late career work and how these experiences influence their SLE.