Problem of Calculation of Reliability of Hierarchical Complex Technical Systems

Within the framework of ensuring availability at oil and gas processing facilities, an analysis of methods for assessing the reliability of a technical object based on the reliability, availability and maintainability of individual elements was made. The difficulties arising from the complex assessment of the reliability of complex technical objects using different methods are shown: A number of methods did not allow to assess the entire complexity of the object, and other methods led to an increase in the complexity of calculations with an increase in the number of individual elements. The authors propose to use combinations of previously known methods at different hierarchical levels for system analysis. An algorithm for assessing reliability based on dividing a complex object into elements, the evaluation of the reliability of which is determined by one of the most suitable methods, such as the Markov models of states and transitions or statistical models, has been developed. Additional designations are proposed for the unambiguous interpretation and structuring of the reliability assessment system. As an example, the calculation of the failure-free operation of the gas treatment unit of the tar visbreaker was made. The possibility of calculating complex interdependent systems, where linear statistical calculation methods are not applicable, and the labor intensity for the Markov method has power-law dependence, is shown.