On the internal consistency of the term structure of forecasts of housing starts

被引：3
|
作者：
Pierdzioch, Christian [1 ]
Ruelke, Jan-Christoph [2 ]
Stadtmann, Georg [3 ,4 ]
机构：
[1] Helmut Schmidt Univ, Dept Econ, D-22008 Hamburg, Germany
[2] WHU Otto Beisheim Sch Management, Dept Econ, D-56179 Vallendar, Germany
[3] Europa Univ Viadrina Frankfurt Oder, Fak Wirtschaftswissensch, D-15207 Frankfurt, Oder, Germany
[4] Univ Southern Denmark, Dept Business & Econ, DK-5230 Odense M, Denmark
来源：
APPLIED ECONOMICS LETTERS | 2013年 / 20卷 / 09期
关键词：
forecasts; housing starts; internal consistency; panel data; R30; D84; C33; EXCHANGE-RATE EXPECTATIONS; HERD;
D O I：
10.1080/13504851.2012.752568
中图分类号：
F [经济];
学科分类号：
02 ;
摘要：
We use the term structure of forecasts of housing starts to test for rationality of forecasts. Our test is based on the idea that short-term and long-term forecasts should be internally consistent. We test the internal consistency of forecasts using data for Australia, Canada, Japan and the United States. Using a simple model of forecast formation, we find that forecasts are not internally consistent, leading to a rejection of forecast rationality.
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页码：847 / 851
页数：5
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