Mathematical model of COVID-19 transmission dynamics incorporating booster vaccine program and environmental contamination

被引:5
|
作者
Akinwande, N. I. [1 ]
Ashezua, T. T. [4 ]
Gweryina, R. I. [4 ]
Somma, S. A. [1 ]
Oguntolu, F. A. [1 ]
Usman, A. [3 ]
Abdurrahman, O. N. [1 ]
Kaduna, F. S. [4 ]
Adajime, T. P. [5 ]
Kuta, F. A. [2 ]
Abdulrahman, S. [6 ]
Olayiwola, R. O. [1 ]
Enagi, A. I. [1 ]
Bolarin, G. A. [1 ]
Shehu, M. D. [1 ]
机构
[1] Fed Univ Technol, Dept Math, Minna, Nigeria
[2] Fed Univ Technol, Dept Microbiol, Minna, Nigeria
[3] Fed Univ Technol, Dept Stat, Minna, Nigeria
[4] Fed Univ Agr, Dept Math, Makurdi, Nigeria
[5] Benue State Univ, Dept Epidemiol & Community Hlth, Makurdi, Nigeria
[6] Fed Univ Birnin Kebbi, Dept Math, Birnin Kebbi, Nigeria
关键词
COVID-19; Booster vaccine program; Environmental contamination; Bifurcation; Optimal control analysis; SARS-COV-2; DISEASE;
D O I
10.1016/j.heliyon.2022.e11513
中图分类号
O [数理科学和化学]; P [天文学、地球科学]; Q [生物科学]; N [自然科学总论];
学科分类号
07 ; 0710 ; 09 ;
摘要
COVID-19 is one of the greatest human global health challenges that causes economic meltdown of many nations. In this study, we develop an SIR-type model which captures both human-to-human and environment-to-human-to-environment transmissions that allows the recruitment of corona viruses in the environment in the midst of booster vaccine program. Theoretically, we prove some basic properties of the full model as well as investigate the existence of SARS-CoV-2-free and endemic equilibria. The SARS-CoV-2-free equilibrium for the special case, where the constant inflow of corona virus into the environment by any other means, Omega s suspended (Omega = 0) is globally asymptotically stable when the effective reproduction number R-0 < 1and unstable if otherwise. Whereas in the presence of free-living Corona viruses in the environment (Omega > 0), the endemic equilibrium using the centremanifold theory is shown to be stable globally whenever R-0 > 1. The model is extended into optimal control system and analyzed analytically using Pontryagin's Maximum Principle. Results from the optimal control simulations show that strategy E for implementing the public health advocacy, booster vaccine program, treatment of isolated people and disinfecting or fumigating of surfaces and dead bodies before burial is the most effective control intervention for mitigating the spread of Corona virus. Importantly, based on the available data used, the study also revealed that if at least 70% of the constituents followed the aforementioned public health policies, then herd immunity could be achieved for COVID-19 pandemic in the community.
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页数:14
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